Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Dominate Your Draft
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Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Dominate Your Draft
"Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Dominate Your Draft" is in-depth fantasy football draft strategy. The aim of the book is to provide advanced material for experienced fantasy football owners and "bottom line" analysis for novices. The book is not a collection of player rankings or projections, but rather an assessment of various draft strategies and fantasy football tenants. It will provide a solid foundation from which you can improve as an owner to dominate your draft.
         - Jonathan Bales, Author
Table of Contents
Preface Chapter 1: Â The Most In-Depth Introduction You'll Ever Read
How to use scarcity at a position to acquire maximum value
How to use your opponents' beliefs to get the best players
Why predictability is more important than projected points
Chapter 2:Â Why Week-to-Week Consistency is (Almost) Worthless
Why you should start a nearly identical lineup each week
How to create tiered rankings that implement players' risk
When and how to take gambles during your draft
Chapter 3:Â Season-to-Season Consistency: Why It Matters and How to Use it
How stats like rushing, receiving, and passing yards/touchdowns translate from one season to another
Why defenses and kickers are almost entirely unpredictable
Why a quarterback or top-tier running back should be your first-round selection
Why tight ends are the most consistent players in fantasy football
Chapter 4:Â Tier-ing Up: How to Create Basic Projections and Tiered Rankings
A basic formula to create projections
How to make tiers in your rankings
Why you should almost never take the best player available on your board (for real)
Why drafting near the end of a round is advantageous
Chapter 5:Â More on Position Scarcity
Why Aaron Rodgers and Rob Gronkowski might be the perfect 1-2 combination
Why you can grab quality wide receivers late
Chapter 6:Â Identifying Value: Regression, Randomness, and Running Backs
How to identify undervalued players
Why running backs with lots of carries aren't really being overworked or overvalued
How to predict running backs' yards-per-carry
Chapter 7:Â Getting Bullish: What the Stock Market Can Teach Us About Fantasy Football
How fantasy football is incredibly similar to the stock market (and what we can learn from the latter)
Why a player's value can be different for different teams
How to "buy low" and "sell high" during your draft
How to utilize public perception
Why your focus shouldn't be securing the most projected points with each pick, but rather "losing" the least
Chapter 8:Â The Ultimate Draft Plan: From Projections to Selections
Specific formulas to project player stats
How to factor league requirements into your rankings
Sample breakdowns of Matt Ryan and Steve Smith
How to create player power ratings and turn them into the ultimate big board
Chapter 9:Â Building the Ideal Fantasy Football Players
Breaking down the ideal characteristics for QB, RB, WR, and TE
How to use measurables to project players, especially rookies
Why speed matters more for running backs than receivers
Chapter 10:Â Don't Mock Me: Oh, now wait. Go ahead.
Taking you through two mock drafts I completed in March
Notes on each pick
Chapter 11:Â Fantasy Football for Smart People: What the Experts Don't Want You to Know
How to project players based on age
Understanding historic rates of decline for each position
How to predict performances using "similarity scores"
Understanding risk and reward
Chapter 12:Â Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Cash in on the Future of the Game
How to manage your money in weekly fantasy football